Scanning the depths

Information is the key to success. It’s something that Magnus Ericsson knows very well. In the 1980s, he was one of the founders of Råvarugruppen, which continuously collected annual reports from mining companies around the world, compiling everything in a unified database.

“It became a unique source of knowledge that enabled the industry to better plan for the future,” says Ericsson, who still runs the company, which is now called RMG Consulting.

The need for knowledge is at least as great today – and perhaps even more in-depth. Both visually and literally. Because what lies below ground needs to be discovered sustainably if the world is to cope with the future energy and material transition.

Innovative prospecting is crucial to success, he says. And that’s precisely why the research he carries out, in his role as Professor of Mineral Economics at Luleå University of Technology, is concerning. Ericsson believes that exploration expenditure is rarely linked to demand, but rather goes hand in hand with fluctuations in the price of metal during the previous year.

“When prices rise, more money is allocated to prospecting, and when prices fall, less. This isn’t an optimal approach. What you should do is look more at the actual future need for metals,” he says.

The reason for this is the challenges associated with prospecting. Costs are high and guarantees are few. According to Ericsson, more research and development is needed to make exploration both smarter and cheaper. Having fewer conflicts around the world would also help, as peace makes potential deposits more explorable.

“Ideally, there should be a clear upward year-on-year trend in investment. If not, it means that there is too little prospecting going on,” says Ericsson.

Errol Smart, former CEO Orion Minerals in South Africa, agrees. He describes the current situation as “a race to discover and develop new mines”, all at a time when the industry has experienced “decades of under-exploration”.​

“Because of this, we find ourselves in a situation where the current supply of minerals cannot meet the world’s needs.”

Smart, whose former company focuses on mining operations in the northern Cape Province, believes that exploration in particular is a challenge for investors, as it requires them to invest money in something that takes a long time to get a return. If there even is a return.

Industry organization Minerals Council South Africa, where Errol Smart is a board member, is doing its part to highlight the conditions facing mine operators.

“Investors need to know that they are investing money in a stable environment, where laws and taxes do not change overnight. Prospecting is stimulated by clear and reliable regulations where everyone knows what applies,” says Smart.

In his opinion, the fact that there is too little prospecting today is concerning, but does not constitute an insoluble problem. The world’s needs to speak up for an upturn in the industry, and new technology can help.

According to Tatiana Aguilar, key responsible for the Mining and Metals Industry at the World Economic Forum (WEF), things are really taking off. When the organization launched two open innovation challenges during 2024–2025, aimed at start-ups and universities, many exciting ideas were presented. Several of these took advantage of AI.

“It is therefore fair to say that AI is already transforming mineral exploration by enhancing efficiency, reducing costs, and improving decision-making,” says Aguilar.

This is necessary, because exploration is what she calls “the backbone of the minerals cycle”:

“High-quality exploration allows for better design of mining projects, leading to a more sustainable performance, greater efficiency, and a deeper understanding of the soil.”

Tatiana Aguilar would like to stress that the current situation with increased demand for new minerals and metals offers the industry an excellent opportunity to redefine its role, enabling it to take responsibility for a sustainable future.

“By engaging transparently with civil society, policymakers, innovators and development institutions, the industry can strengthen trust and build long-term partnerships,” she says.

To succeed, global collaboration is essential. WEF assists in establishing such dialogs, with the aim of facilitating increased prospecting and even offers more concrete collaboration spaces.